It is as if it's 1986 once again. Will it end the same way for Noynoy?

Let’s go back to the 2007 senatorial elections. The camp of then Tarlac Rep. Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III was worried about the surveys showing him in a precarious situation—hovering from the 9th to 11th in a 12-person slate.

It was puzzling. They had pulled out what they thought was their best card. His sister Kris, a popular celebrity and top product endorser, starred in television and radio advertisements to solicit votes for him.

It was a March 2007 Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey on political endorsements that saved the elections for Noynoy. It turned out that while 27% of voters said they would vote for a candidate endorsed by Kris, another 22% said they would not.

It was then that they discovered that his mother, former President Corazon "Cory" Aquino, had the stronger sway on voters. About 36% of those surveyed said they were going to vote for the candidate she would endorse and only 18% said they were not. Her endorsement power—a net of 18%--was much higher than Kris’s 5%.

Kris’s ads were then replaced by President Aquino’s "Lagot sya sa Nanay niya" ads. It resonated with many. He ranked 6th in the official election results with over 14 million votes.

"I think people distinguish between buying commodities and making political decisions. People still look up to Cory for matters involving political choices," former education Secretary Florencio "Butch" Abad, who was also Noynoy’s campaign manager in 2007, told Newsbreak in an interview right after the elections.

History repeats itself?

Two years later, it's basically the same story—only grander. With the death of President Aquino in August, the country searched for someone to replace her as democracy icon.

In an instant, Noynoy was propelled to the presidential race and changed the 2010 equation. The latest Pulse Asia survey shows that his 44% rating gives him a big lead over the 19% of former survey front-runner Senator Manuel Villar.

Noynoy’s circumstances starkly resemble her mother’s in the 1986 snap elections, when she challenged the dictator Ferdinand Marcos.

Like her mother, Noynoy was a hesitant presidential candidate. It was the death of her husband, Senator Benigno "Ninoy" Aquino, that catapulted her into the presidency. Her death did the same to Noynoy.

Like the dying years of the Marcos regime, the current administration suffers widespread public disapproval. Noynoy’s supporters call this "divine providence."

It will be seen in May 2010 if the ending will be the same.

Legislative record: Zero

Like her mother, Noynoy’s capability to lead the country is put in question. Although he served three terms in the House of Representatives and has served two of his six years in the Senate, Noynoy has not stood out in the public eye for his own accomplishments. More often, it was his romantic relationships with celebrities that earned him a reputation.

He led the members of the Liberal Party and was named deputy speaker for Luzon on his last term. "He was a consensus builder and team player. However, when he believes that principles would be compromised, he puts his foot down and stands up for what is right," said Quezon Rep. Lorenzo Tanada III, a colleague at the Liberal Party.

But in all his eleven years as a legislator, Noynoy has yet to get his major bills passed. In the House of Representatives, he filed a total of 21 bills. None of them passed into law. In the Senate—where he has served two of his six years—Noynoy has authored and co-authored 23 bills.

In comparison, fellow congressmen who won Senate seats in 2007 boast of their accomplishments. Senator Juan Miguel Zubiri was the principal author of Republic Act 9367 or the Biofuels Act of 2006. Senator Francis Escudero banked on his popularity as the late Fernando Poe Jr.'s spokesman in the 2004 elections. Senator Alan Peter Cayetano gained fame as a critic of First Gentleman Jose Miguel Arroyo.

In the past four elections, it seemed enough the Noynoy was his mother’s son. If the public sentiment doesn’t change, that appears to be enough for 2010, too.

Public service

In an obvious tirade against Noynoy, administration bet former Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro was quoted as saying that inspiration is not enough in leading the country. Teodoro and Noynoy are second cousins.

"Hindi pwedeng inspirasyon lamang ang solusyon sa mga nasira ng mga bagyo at mga problema ng bansa, kailangan ito ng eksperyensya at hindi ito ang panahon para mag-experimento at matuto pa," Teodoro told inquirer.net.

As far as education is concerned, Noynoy—a graduate of AB Economics from the Atenedo De Manila University—is inferior to his cousin who is a bar topnotcher and a graduate of the prestigious Harvard Law School.

But to Noynoy’s supporters, a brilliant mind is not the top demand on the next president.

"We've had two very brilliant leaders who brought us to the ground. What Noynoy has is he understands what public service is. From a very young age, he knows what public service is. He will not betray the legacy of his parents," said Ging Deles, former peace adviser of President Arroyo.

"The crucial thing that needs to happen is to be able to reverse the damage that has been inflicted by the present administration and to rebuild the foundations for restoring good governance is for government to win back the trust of the people. He’s the one," Deles added.

The threats

However, two issues threaten to tarnish Noynoy’s image—Hacienda Luisita and the Reproductive Health bill.

Noynoy is inheriting one of the major criticisms against President Aquino. While land reform was one of the pillars of her administration, her own family's 6,400-hectare sugar estate was spared. With Noynoy seeking the presidency, the farmers of Hacienda Luisita feel it is the time to pressure the Cojuangco family to finally distribute the land.

"The farmers are concerned that if a solution is not reached before the 2010 elections, they would again be forgotten by the next government and relegated to just being fodder for the elections," said Bayan Muna Satur Ocampo, who has been supporting the farmers’ call.

Aquino has said he will talk to his family about Hacienda Luisita but a solution is yet to be proposed.

The other issue is Noynoy’s position in favor of the Reproductive Health bill. The Catholic Church is opposed to the bill for promoting the use of contraceptives. A number of Catholic Church officials have called on Noynoy to withdraw his support from the bill lest they will campaign against him.

Noynoy vowed to explain his position to the Catholic Church, but the dialogue is yet to happen.

Internally, a disorganized campaign poses an equally serious threat to Noynoy's presidential bid: various political factions are behind him. The challenge is for Noynoy to assert his leadership and rein in the different groups. How he will run his campaign will give a glimpse into how he will run the country should he win in 2010. (Newsbreak)

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