In its imminent merger with administration ally Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino (Kampi), the ruling Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats party will have more leverage in picking administration candidates in 2010, calculations by abs-cbnNEWS.com/Newsbreak show.

Based on the “equity of the incumbent” policy adopted by the committee on merger, more current members of Lakas will be given the merged party’s nomination for local positions.

The new party, to be called Lakas-Kampi-CMD, is scheduled to have its first executive meeting on May 28. President Arroyo, the chairman of Lakas and the founder of Kampi, is expected to attend.

Based on the equity-of-the-incumbent rule, the sitting Lakas or Kampi governors, congressmen, and mayors—unless they are on their last term—become the automatic standard bearers of the new party.

This means that current Kampi members who challenged and lost to Lakas candidates in the last elections have no chances of being named official candidates of the new party.

Lakas’s Numbers

In past elections, too, there were instances when Lakas, being the bigger party, had its way with coalition allies and extended the equity to immediate relatives of last-term party members.

Lakas’s membership remains bigger than Kampi’s.

Based on Lakas’s data immediately after the 2007 elections, out of 79 proclaimed gubernatorial winners, 46 were with Lakas and 12 were with Kampi. Of the 117 city mayors and 1,502 municipal mayors, 62 and 984, respectively, ran and won under the Lakas banner. Kampi didn’t release figures for its victories in the mayoral race, if any.

Information from House of Representatives website show that there are 89 Lakas and 50 Kampi members out of the 216 congressmen (representatives of two more legislative districts died in office).

“If you are the incumbent governor and you are Lakas, and you ran against Kampi in the last elections, you will be the official candidate [of the merged party]” in 2010, Lakas spokesman Prospero Pichay told abs-cbnNEWS.com/Newsbreak. He is a member of the committee on merger.

Works Both Ways

The Kampi bets who lost to Lakas candidates in 2007 “will not get any certificate of candidacy from the merged Lakas-Kampi-CMD,” Pichay added. “If you don’t want to follow, then you have to leave the party.”

Cavite Rep. Elpidio Barzaga Jr., a Kampi member, thinks the arrangement is only fair. “It operates both ways…. There are areas where Kampi won over Lakas,” and the merged parties will honor Kampi’s positions there.

He acknowledged Lakas’s advantage over Kampi: “We cannot do anything. They have proven their political strength. The proof is they won in the last elections.”

In 2007, Lakas and Kampi clashed for the governorship of at least 26 provinces, Newsbreak research shows. In these races, Lakas won 16; Kampi, 8. Lakas and Kampi bets in Marinduque lost to other parties, while the winner in Shariff Kabunsuan was not proclaimed.

In the congressional elections, their bets ran against each other in at least 53 districts. Lakas won 29 seats; Kampi, 18. In six districts, Lakas and Kampi candidates lost to candidates of other parties—Pasay City, Caloocan City’s 2nd district, Rizal’s 2nd District, Lanao del Norte’s 1st district, Laguna’s 3rd district, and Sorsogon’s 1st district.

Isolated Cases

Pichay acknowledged that the equity-of-the-incumbent rule will make the new party “lose a lot of allies,” but it would also simplify the merger.

The rule is expected to clear about 80 percent of the “conflict zones.” The merged party will only need to arbitrate in areas where the incumbent administration allies are on their last terms or where the incumbent is a member of the opposition.

Barzaga said the bitter rivalries are isolated and should not be a big problem. “They are only in several provinces,” he said.

Based on insider calculations, the conflict zones are confined in 20 to 30 percent of the entire configuration.

Pangasinan Rep. Jose De Venecia Jr. formed Lakas-Tao, the precedent of Lakas-CMD, in 1992 to support the presidential bid of then former defense chief Fidel Ramos. With Ramos’s victory, Lakas expanded its power base to become the dominant party.

Kampi, on the other hand, was formed in 1997 by then Senator Gloria Arroyo as a vehicle for her presidential bid, originally against De Venecia, in 1998. But De Venecia was able to persuade Arroyo to run as his vice president under Lakas. Arroyo then dissolved Kampi and went on to co-chair Lakas with De Venecia.

Past Mistakes

But in 2004, President Arroyo’s husband, First Gentleman Jose Miguel Arroyo, revived Kampi, with President Arroyo also as chair. The party has since been fielding candidates against Lakas members in local races.

In the conflict zones in 2004 and 2007, the administration’s resources were split between the two competing allies. These allies, in turn, focused on their own campaigns and neglected the national candidates. This was partly blamed for the big loss of the administration’s senatorial ticket in 2007 elections.

At the same time, the national candidates could not go in these conflict zones to campaign for fear of offending one local bet if they paid courtesy calls or attended rallies of the other local bet.

These are mistakes that the administration vows not to repeat in 2010.

As in 2007, the administration recognizes the continuing sentiment of the Filipino voters in favor of the opposition. But once Lakas and Kampi are merged, they are counting on the administration’s machinery to deliver the votes in 2010.

“Politics is addition. The administration candidates in the forthcoming elections, most especially our president, will not be too strong considering the current political issues. Naturally, we have to strengthen our respective parties. Merger is one of the means. That is political reality,” Barzaga said.

“It (the merger) is going to be painful, but that is better than what happened last time,” Pichay said. (abs-cbnNEWS.com/Newsbreak)

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